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与之对应 的，集中式逆变器（含集散式）占比为 26.8%/24.1%/21.2%/18.7%；预计 2022-2025 年海外组串式逆变器的占比为 67%/69%/71%/73%，微型逆变 器的占比为 5.5%/6.4%/7.3%/8.2%，与之对应的，集中式逆变器（含集散式） 占比为 27.5%/24.6%/21.7%/18.8%。
4、全球储能市场保持高速增长，2021 年全球电化学储能新增装机量为 10GW， 随着全球新能源装机量的快速提升，各国对储能的需求愈发迫切，预计全球电化 学储能新增装机量 2022-2025 年增速为 150%/60%/38%/36%，对应电化学储 能新增装机量为 25/40/55/75GW；随着降本的不断推进，储能变流器的降本速 度较快：预计 2022-2025 年储能变流器的价格为 0.8/0.7/0.6/0.5 元/W。
Key Assumptions:
1. The global PV market maintains rapid growth. According to CPIA data, the new installed PV capacity of the world is 170GW in 2021. The corresponding newly installed PV capacity is 218/248/273/300GW, and the global PV inverter replacement demand is expected to be 12/14/17/21GW in 2022-2025.
Accordingly, global inverter shipments are expected to be 230/262/290/321GW in 2022-2025; It is expected that the growth rate of China's inverter shipment is 19/14/12/10% in 2022-2025, corresponding to the inverter shipment of 75/86/96/106GW; Accordingly, it is estimated that the shipment volume of the offshore reverse transformer in 2022-2025 is 154/176/194/215GW;
2. With the continuous progress of technology, the proportion of serial inverters will gradually increase; With the attention of various countries to photovoltammetry integrity, the proportion of micro inverter will gradually increase; Correspondingly, the proportion of centralized inverter will gradually decrease: it is expected that in 2022-2025, the proportion of domestic cluster inverter (shipment caliber, the same below) will be 72%/74%/76%/77%, and the proportion of micro inverter will be 1.2%/1.9%/2.8%/4.3%.
Correspondingly, the proportion of centralized inverter (including distributed inverter) is 26.8%/24.1%/21.2%/18.7%; It is expected that in 2022-2025, the proportion of overseas cluster inverter is 67%/69%/71%/73%, and the proportion of micro inverter is 5.5%/6.4%/7.3%/8.2%. Correspondingly, The ratio of centralized inverter (including distributed inverter) is 27.5%/24.6%/21.7%/18.8%.
3. With the continuous progress of cost reduction, the price of all kinds of inverters will gradually decrease. Among them, the technology of centralized inverter is very mature, and the cost reduction speed is slow. The technology of micro inverter is developing rapidly, and the cost reduction speed is fast. It is estimated that in 2022-2025, the price of serial inverter in China is 0.2/0.19/0.18/0.17 yuan /W, and the price grid of centralized inverse inverter is 0.15/0.14/0.14/0.14 yuan /W. The valence of the micro-type inverter is 1.07/0.91/0.77/0.66 yuan /W;
It is expected that in 2022-2025, the price of overseas cluster inverter is 0.32/0.31/0.3/0.29 yuan /W, and that of centralized inverse inverter is 0.2/0.19/0.18/0.18 yuan /W. The valence of the micro-type inverter is 1.53/1.30/1.11/0.94 yuan /W.
4. The global energy storage market is growing at a high speed. In 2021, the newly installed amount of electrochemical energy storage in the world is 10GW. With the rapid increase of the installed amount of new energy worldwide, the demand for energy storage in various countries is increasingly urgent. The new installed capacity of electrochemical storage energy is 25/40/55/75GW; With the continuous progress of cost reduction, the cost reduction rate of energy storage converters is faster: the price of energy storage converters is expected to be 0.8/0.7/0.6/0.5 yuan /W in 2022-2025.