1 限制关键上游元件

从2004年开始，全球就出现了半导体级硅的短缺。许多光伏产品制造商选择与主要的硅片生产商订立长期供应协议。许多合同规定"照付不议"，由于组件需求与签约的发货量不相符，导致许多公司过度购买，甚至有公司违背合同，逃避付款责任，随之而来的诉讼又耗时多年，导致一些太阳能设备制造商破产。

目前，电池产业的快速发展引发了锂、钴等金属材料的供应出现了剧烈波动。锂和钴会不会像硅片的情况一样，出现恐慌性抢购、混乱供应和定价崩溃的现象？

2 补贴关乎企业存亡

光伏行业的补贴通常被视为短期激励手段，等到光伏市场健全发展，光伏企业自我维持能力增强，补贴可能逐渐退出。（尽管对某些能源行业会有永久的激励措施）。

当这些激励措施突然取消时（比如可再生能源发电配额制的限制），依赖补贴的企业销售量骤降，甚至导致破产。储能行业是否应该快速降低成本，以便在没有补贴措施的情况下依然保持增长？

3 产品成熟度有待提高

光伏行业中，早期的光伏逆变器故障率颇高，无法有效发挥功能，失去了赢得市场的关键。同时，安装商部署迟缓，此类原因都让制造商当时无法解决，产生了不良后果。

而储能系统的控制系统也可能存在可靠性问题，缺乏关键软件或者未达到客户要求。早期的电池储能市场进入者能否提供完善成熟的产品以获得足够的市场份额？

4 重视软件应用

专业软件是所有储能系统的重要组成部分。曾经有一家公司推出了一款优质微型逆变器，但却忽视了客户所需的控制系统和软件。缺少了这个专业软件，就没有完整的客户解决方案。在开发客户需要的必要控制系统和软件之前，该公司的资金就用光了。

电池储能系统制造商现在正面对类似的问题。虽然可将必要的硬件组件进行电气连接并集成，但让应用程序、软件和嵌入式固件一起工作还是很有难度的。储能企业应该投入足够的资源来确保其软件和硬件一样有效。

5 考虑电价结构变化

为缩短投资回收期，许多太阳能公司都假设电费将在未来稳步增长。这个假设是基于最有利的历史数据（有时是在有利的时间框架下挑选出来的），并预计在设备的使用期内一直增长。不幸的是，其中一些数据调查过于乐观，并没有考虑电价结构的变化。

例如，使用时间周期的变化降低了日间太阳能发电的收益（加州的高峰期曾经是上午10点至下午2点，现在变为下午3点至9点）。更糟糕的是，一些融资计划增加了一个支付自动上浮计划。由于电价变化和支付费用增加，一些客户发现他们在太阳能方面的支出远比收益高。

值得一提的是，电价结构主要受公用事业的影响，而这些公用事业部门对光伏和储能行业的支持力度较小。那么储能企业是否将其价值主张建立在短期电价上？

6 重视安全问题

光伏发电具有较良好的安全记录，是由于电池板和逆变器并没有发生自然爆炸的趋势。那么，电池储能行业是否会充分考虑到电池高能量密度的危害，是否考虑推出将危害降至最低的标准和安装示范？否则，"钱"景较好的用户侧储能的部署可能会受到限制。

7 注重盈利性

成功的太阳能组件制造商实现了盈利，并与能够提供完整系统的合作伙伴结盟。电池企业需要关注盈利性、质量可靠性和保修完整性，否则他们将被迫以清算价格销售电池。

8 不可避免的黑天鹅事件

每年都会发生原材料短缺、政策和标准变化、公司经营状况变化、新推出的关税等或积极或负面的事情。从积极方面看，促进发展的因素包括税收抵免、新技术，以及新的补贴政策。

储能企业需要考虑各种各样的黑天鹅事件，例如电池安全问题，产品供应短缺以及贸易保护关税问题。在艰难时期中企业的生存能力将决定该行业是否能长期健康地发展。

 Limit key upstream components  

 

Since 2004, there has been a global shortage of semiconductor-grade silicon.  Many manufacturers of photovoltaic products choose to enter into long-term supply agreements with major wafer producers.  Many contracts are "pay or leave," and many companies overbuy because the demand for components does not match the contracted shipments. Some companies even renege on contracts and evade payment obligations, and years of litigation ensue, leading some solar equipment makers to go bankrupt.  

 

At present, the rapid development of the battery industry has triggered drastic fluctuations in the supply of lithium, cobalt and other metal materials.   Will lithium and cobalt suffer from panic buying, supply chaos and pricing collapses, as happened with silicon chips?  

 

2. Subsidies are related to the survival of enterprises  

 

Subsidies in the PV industry are usually regarded as short-term incentive means. When the PV market develops healthily and the self-sustaining ability of PV enterprises is enhanced, subsidies may be gradually withdrawn.   (Although there would be permanent incentives for some energy industries).  

 

When these incentives are abruptly removed, as in the case of renewable power quotas, subsidy-dependent firms' sales plummet and even go bankrupt.  Should the energy storage industry reduce costs fast enough to grow without subsidies?  

 

3. Product maturity needs to be improved  

 

In the photovoltaic industry, the failure rate of early photovoltaic inverters is quite high, unable to effectively play the function, lost the key to win the market.   At the same time, installers were slow to deploy, which made it impossible for manufacturers to solve the problem at the time, with adverse consequences.  

 

The control systems of energy storage systems may also have reliability problems, lack key software or fail to meet customer requirements.  Can the early entrants in the battery storage market offer a proven product to gain sufficient market share?  

 

4. Pay attention to software applications  

 

Professional software is an important part of all energy storage systems.  There was once a company that introduced a good micro inverter, but neglected the control system and software the customer needed.  Without this specialized software, there is no complete customer solution.  The company ran out of money before it could develop the necessary control systems and software that its customers needed.  

 

Manufacturers of battery energy storage systems are now facing a similar problem.  While the necessary hardware components can be electrically connected and integrated, getting applications, software, and embedded firmware to work together can be challenging.  Energy storage companies should invest enough resources to ensure that their software is as effective as their hardware.  

 

5. Consider changes in electricity price structure  

 

To shorten the payback period, many solar companies are assuming that electricity bills will rise steadily in the future.  This assumption is based on the most favorable historical data (sometimes selected in favorable time frames) and is expected to grow throughout the lifetime of the device.  Unfortunately, some of these data surveys are overly optimistic and do not take into account changes in the electricity price structure.  

 

For example, changes in the time period of use have reduced the yield of daytime solar power (peak hours in California were once 10am to 2pm, but now are 3pm to 9pm).   To make matters worse, some financing plans have added an automatic payment float.  As electricity prices change and payments increase, some customers are finding they are paying far more for solar than they are getting.  

 

It is worth mentioning that the tariff structure is mainly influenced by utilities, which are less supportive of the PV and energy storage industries.  Do energy storage companies base their value proposition on short-term electricity prices?  

 

6 Pay attention to security issues  

 

Photovoltaic power generation has a relatively good safety record because the panels and inverters do not have a tendency to explode naturally.  So, will the battery energy storage industry fully consider the hazards of high battery energy density, and will it consider introducing standards and installation demonstrations to minimize the hazards?  Otherwise, the deployment of user-side energy storage with better "money" may be limited.  

 

7 Focus on profitability  

 

Successful solar panel manufacturers are profitable and align with partners who can provide complete systems.  Battery companies need to focus on profitability, quality reliability and warranty integrity, or they will be forced to sell batteries at clearing prices.  

 

8 The inevitable black swan event  

 

Every year, raw material shortages, changes in policies and standards, changes in the business conditions of companies, new tariffs, and other positive or negative things happen.   On the positive side, growth has been boosted by tax credits, new technology and new subsidies.  

 

Energy storage companies need to consider a variety of black swan events, such as battery safety issues, product supply shortages and protectionist tariffs.   The viability of companies in tough times will determine the long-term health of the industry.