光伏逆变器的主要作用为实现电能的转换,将光伏组件产生的直流电转化为电网传输和 用户使用的交流电,是光伏系统的组成要素之一。根据技术路径不同,光伏逆变器主要 包括集中式逆变器、组串式逆变器和微型逆变器。从应用场景来看,微型逆变器通常适用于分布式发电系统,常用于户用屋顶和工商业屋顶等场景;集中式逆变器主要用于集 中式发电系统,常用于大面积且光照强烈的场景,如荒漠、山地等;组串式逆变器功率 范围较广,兼容分布式和集中式发电场景。
和其他产品相比,微型逆变器具备更高的安全性、更高的发电增益、以及更灵活的安装 方式。为了实现组件级关断,与微型逆变器形成互补的效果的还有“组串式逆变器+关断 器”和“组串式逆变器+优化器”产品,微逆与这些产品统称为组件级电力电子(MLPE)。与其他两种产品相比,微型逆变器最明显的优势是具有直流电压低的特点,能消除发电 过程中的火灾风险。但目前微逆成本较高,价格方面存在劣势。
(一)行业:初始成本下降+发电效率提升,光伏成为最便宜的能源
光伏系统成本持续下降,发电效率不断提升。目前,光伏发电已经基本实现与火电平价。CPIA数据显示,2022年地面电站的初始成本预计下降为3.93元/W,较2016年下降46%;工商业分布式电站初始投资成本预计为 3.53 元/W,较 2017 年下降 58%。初始成本和效 率提升带动光伏发电的LCOE迅速下降。LAZRD 数据显示,2009-2021年,光伏发电LCOE 累计下降 90%,达到 36 美元/MWh,是成本最低的能源方式。
光伏发电量当前占比较小。根据 BloombergNEF 测算,2022 年 3 月全球光伏累计装机达 到 1TW。尽管光伏行业已经快速发展多年,但截至 2021 年底,全球光伏发电量占比约 为 5%,占比仍然较低。新能源替代趋势强劲,光伏发电未来提升空间较大。目前中国、美国、欧盟等多个国家 和地区正在加速新能源替代,未来光伏发电量占比将持续提升。假设 2030/2050 年光伏 发电量占比提升至 23.7%/40%,预计光伏累计装机将达到 6.8/18.7TW,到 2030/2050 年 光伏每年新增装机平均增速将达到 22%/16%。
Micro inverse advantages: high safety, high power generation gain, high flexibility
The main function of photovoltaic inverter is to realize the conversion of electric energy, the direct current generated by photovoltaic modules into the power grid transmission and user use of alternating current, is one of the components of the photovoltaic system. According to different technology paths, photovoltaic inverters mainly include centralized inverters, group series inverters and micro inverters. In terms of application scenarios, micro inverters are usually suitable for distributed power generation systems, which are often used in domestic and commercial roofs. Centralized inverter is mainly used for collecting Chinese power generation system, often used in large area and intense lighting scene, such as desert, mountain, etc. Series inverters have a wide power range and are compatible with distributed and centralized power generation scenarios.
The picture
Compared with other products, micro inverters offer higher safety, higher generation gain, and more flexible installation. In order to realize component-level shut-off, there are also "group series inverter + shut-off" and "group series inverter + optimizer" products complementary to the micro inverter. Micro inverse and these products are collectively referred to as component level power electronics (MLPE). Compared with the other two products, the most obvious advantage of the micro inverter is that it has the characteristics of low DC voltage, which can eliminate the fire risk during the generation process. But at present, the cost of micro inverse is high and the price is inferior.
Second, the demand side: safety standards increase + price decrease, micro inverse penetration rate will increase rapidly
(I) Industry: initial cost reduction + power generation efficiency improvement, photovoltaic becomes the cheapest energy
The cost of photovoltaic system continues to decrease, and the power generation efficiency continues to improve. At present, photovoltaic power generation has basically achieved parity with thermal power. CPIA data show that the initial cost of ground power stations is expected to decrease to 3.93 yuan /W in 2022, 46% lower than that in 2016. The initial investment cost of industrial and commercial distributed power stations is expected to be 3.53 yuan /W, which is 58% lower than that in 2017. The increase of initial cost and efficiency drives the rapid decline of LCOE of photovoltaic power generation. According to LAZRD data, the LCOE for PV has fallen by 90% cumulatively to $36 /MWh from 2009 to 2021, making it the lowest-cost form of energy.
The picture
Photovoltaic power generation currently accounts for a relatively small proportion. As measured by BloombergNEF, the cumulative installed PV capacity worldwide reached 1TW in March 2022. Although the PV industry has been developing rapidly for many years, the share of global PV generation at the end of 2021 is still low at about 5%. The trend of new energy substitution is strong, and there is a large room for future improvement of photovoltaic power generation. At present, China, the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions are accelerating the replacement of new energy, and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation will continue to increase in the future. Assuming that the proportion of photovoltaic power generation increases to 23.7%/40% in 2030/2050, it is expected that the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 6.8/18.7TW, and the average annual growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 22%/16% in 2030/2050.